A fiscal analysis performed for the developer of the proposed Oriole Landing project says the housing will result in a net boost to town revenue of at least $75,000 per year.
The report for Civico Development done by Fougere Planning & Development, Inc., looked at increased revenue from property and excise taxes as well as costs from added school-age children and emergency services. The Milford, N.H. company is also doing a fiscal impact analysis for the proposed 180-unit LCB Senior Living development in Lexington.
With an estimated value of $16 million, Oriole Landing would be expected to generate first-year tax payments of $217,870 based on Lincoln’s current property tax rate of $12.60 per $1,000 valuation, the report says. Another $32,813 in revenue would come from automobile excise taxes and $6,536 in the 3 percent property tax surcharge that funds the Community Preservation Act. The added estimated revenue totals $257,219.
Fourgere analyzed three years of emergency call data from 1,582 apartment housing units to project annual increases of 29 calls a year and 14 more calls for fire and ambulance services. Based on Lincoln’s Public Safety Department call records and budgets, the town would pay an additional $18,641 for Oriole Landing services. There will be no added road maintenance costs because the development’s road maintenance and garbage removal will be paid for by the apartment complex operator.
The report analyzed the school impact of the 30 proposed two-bedroom units, disregarding the 30 one-bedroom units since those tenants would presumably not have children living with them. Using the Lincoln Woods units (minus its three-bedroom units) for comparison, Fourgere projects that 9–16 school-age children may live at Oriole Landing, with 70-80 percent of them in grades K-8.
Oriole Landing’s fiscal impact according to the Fougere report (click image to enlarge).
Based on Lincoln’s class size policies, this will result in less than a single additional class, meaning an extra teacher costing about $100,000 probably would not have to be hired. However, the firm included a figure of $60,000–$100,000 “to account for some school-related costs… to cover potential teacher salaries.” K-8 school enrollment is down 12.5 percent since 2011-12, according to school data cited in the report, so “given the declining enrollment trend, the need for additional staff is unlikely.”
When everything is added up, the net fiscal impact will be an estimated $75,437–$115,437 in additional revenue for the town.
The Planning Board will hold a public hearing on Civico’s preliminary site plan on Tuesday, March 6 at 7 p.m. in town hall. Residents will also be asked to amend zoning bylaws to establish a North Lincoln Planning Development District and approve the prelininary site plan at Town Meeting on March 24.
On Thursday, Feb. 22, Civico Development will host a presentation and Q&A for the Council on Aging at 2:30 p.m. in Bemis Hall and an open house in the Lincoln Public Library from 6:30–8:30 p.m. There will with additional open houses on March 8, 15, and 22 and another COA session on March 16. A full list of meetings can be found here.
If the developer is confident with these projections for school impacts, then they should be agreeable to an amendment to the contract with the town that would include an additional amount for each additional child who enters the schools, above the projections. Lexington, in the permitting of its first 40B development, discovered, after the fact, projections were far too conservative. The schools found themselves dealing with a large increase in students. So, when permitting another such development, the town required an upfront payment, in addition to a formula for additional monies for each child over the projected number of students. Lincoln could be insulating itself from negative impacts of faulty projections if it would follow Lexington’s example.
I have a fantasy, it goes like this: A message appears on the email of a Mothers’ Group in Somerville, or maybe Cambridge: “Flash! There are going to be vacant apartments next year just fifteen minutes west of Alewife…and THEY’RE IN THE LINCOLN SCHOOL DISTRICT! Get in line before it’s too late.”
There goes your conservative estimate.
Ms Mattes’s comments are vital for the Town to consider in voting for this oversized housing project.
The study quoted in this article clearly only considers “marginal costs” of a few additional students. A more accurate way to calculate the cost is using a per pupil expenditure which (as of 2016) was $21,000/student. For 16 students this would be $336,000 for a total expense of $356,000 or a loss to the Town of over $105,000 each year.
I am also concerned that this analysis fails to address the very likely special education impact. Simply put, affordable housing units in Lincoln are particularly attractive to families who have children in need of extensive special education services, (for which the town pays a significant portion of the bill), but who otherwise are unable to afford the cost of housing here. Any responsible cost analysis should consider the current makeup of affordable housing residents in the town and project total costs accordingly. Please note!! I am in no way casting any judgment against special education, and parents who only seek to do what’s best for their families. However, we have a duty to consider the most likely scenarios so we can negotiate with the developer accordingly.