By David Cuetos
I think residents should be very cautious about the Select Board newsletter being mailed to every household. It presents several highly uncertain assumptions as settled facts. My concerns boil down to these issues:
1. The advertised $375,000 cost difference between the two options is not a reliable number.
The current ground-source heat-pump (GSHP) estimate is about $6.25 million, while Northeast Engineering’s independent, fully loaded conventional estimate is about $2.13 million, a difference of approximately $4.1 million. To narrow that huge difference, the town adds roughly $1.2 million to the conventional option, much of it disputed, and then assumes $1.55 million in federal tax benefits. That includes a domestic-content bonus even though its own tax consultant acknowledges that the calculation does not use the methodology required by current IRS guidance. The GSHP project also consumes a $1 million grant that could support other eligible projects.
2. The conventional HVAC estimate seems too high.
Northeast’s $2.13 million estimate contains arithmetic errors, duplicated lines and limited backup for several assumptions. It includes roughly $940K of contingencies, fees, project costs and overhead/profit above direct construction. Northeast also estimated roughly $300K for replacing the Library boiler. Bemis Hall’s boilers were recently replaced for under $50K. The Library is larger and more complicated, but a roughly 6x difference deserves explanation.
3. It is simply false that the GSHP project will have “no incremental tax impact.”
Taxpayers will fund approximately $5.3 million through town reserves and future CPA revenues, about $2,750 for the average household. Some of the reserve draw could eventually be replenished by federal credits, but those credits are uncertain and would arrive later.
4. The $6.25 million GSHP price was not project-specifically competitively bid.
PowerOptions competitively selected ESG into its vendor program, but Lincoln did not solicit competing bids for this project. We have not tried getting a competitive bid to test ESG’s price. Northeast estimated the fully loaded cost of a more expensive closed-loop GSHP system at only $5.39 million. Since ESG is now proposing the less expensive open-loop design, this raises a serious question as to whether the $6.25 million price is substantially above a competitive market price.
5. We do not know what the “not-to-exceed” price or “performance guarantee” actually guarantees.
The ESG contract is still being negotiated. We do not know which costs can become change orders, who bears well-performance and site-condition risk, or what remedy the town receives if performance falls short. The final cost of the GSHP could therefore exceed $6.25 million.
6. The town has not yet shown that the proposed system will perform as advertised.
ESG itself says a third standing-column well may be required depending on yield. Nearby wells have shown very low production. We still have not seen the design bleed assumptions or low-bleed winter performance. Inside the building, ESG plans to reuse existing ductwork with heating air around 95°F, yet no duct static-pressure calculations or acoustic analysis have been provided. We do not know whether the system can deliver the required heat quietly without duct modifications or supplemental heating.
These are not minor details. They go directly to cost, risk and whether the system will work as promised.
Cuetos lives on Weston Road in Lincoln.
“My Turn” is a forum for readers to offer their letters to the editor or views on any subject of interest to other Lincolnians. Submissions must be signed with the writer’s name and street address and sent via email to lincolnsquirrelnews@gmail.com. Items will be edited for punctuation, spelling, style, etc., and will be published at the discretion of the editor. Submissions containing personal attacks, errors of fact, or other inappropriate material will not be published.
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