By Benjamin Shiller
After spending a lot of time thinking about the various options for the Housing Choice Act, I have become very concerned about potential consequences of having too much growth too quickly. I thought the most concentrated housing option, Option C, might be manageable at the stated increase in units — 454, or about a 20% increase in Lincoln (excluding Hanscom) housing units. However, digging deeper, I learned that the increase could be much higher than stated, raising serious concerns about unintended consequences. The reason for the severe underestimate is the inclusion of properties with substantial wetlands and town-owned lands. The state compliance model heavily discounts such properties, excessively so, raising the concern that the actual number of additional units may be more than twice as high.
I have created this video, explaining this in more detail, which I hope you might consider viewing.
There are plenty of ways to do more than our part to alleviate the local housing shortage without jeopardizing our town. We could try to choose parcels more selectively to avoid a surprise. For example, we could choose parcels that are privately owned and which do not contain wetlands.
There really doesn’t seem to be any rationale for including public lands, as they do not count at all towards compliance. For example, it has been claimed that the DPW needs to be included for contiguity, because the road counts as public lands rather than “public ways” which are to be exempted from contiguity. However, even if you think roads on municipal land do not count as “public ways,” which seems contrary to how Massachusetts defines a public way, one could change it to a municipal road with the stroke of a pen, then drop the DPW from Option C.
Ryan Estate poses a bigger issue, but one that can be solved with a little creative thinking. Ryan Estate is probably needed for contiguity for options where the majority of the acres surround the mall. However, Ryan Estate could be assigned to its own subdistrict with much lower density, eliminating the risk of surprises. Option E does this.
I close with a question. Proponents of Option C have repeatedly claimed that development would take place slowly over time. If that is the case, then what is the harm of selecting a less risky option, like Option E, along with the mall redevelopment, which together would increase housing units (yes, new housing) across Lincoln by about 15%? This would already be a very large change especially since it is all concentrated in one area. We could do that, then see if substantial rapid development causes any issues. If it does not, then we could do additional rezoning to increase housing units further, and avoid the HCA limitation of 10% affordable units. I have difficulty seeing why all of our housing expansion has to occur right now under the Housing Choice Act.
Benjamin Shiller is a member of Lincoln Residents for Alternative Housing.
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Thank you for your cogent description. I have watched your video and it does clarify the problems raised about the maximum units that could be included using HCA guidelines.